Intuition is a skittish animal. Like a forest creature, it works best from the shadows—the more directly you try to observe and analyze it, the more elusive it becomes.
This is not mere poetics; it reflects a fundamental truth about how our brains process information.
Research shows that intuition originates in the nonverbal regions of our brain, particularly the basal ganglia and anterior cingulate cortex. These regions process patterns outside of our conscious awareness.
When we try to put intuitive insights into words, we often end up with rationalization rather than explanation. The verbal parts of our brain, while trying to construct a coherent narrative, fill in gaps with plausible but potentially false explanations.
The Intelligence of Intuition
Despite its mysterious nature, intuition is not magical—it's a form of unconscious intelligence. As researcher Gerd Gigerenzer argues, intuition operates through “smart heuristics”—simple, efficient rules our brains construct to handle real-world complexities. These mental shortcuts aren't irrational; they're sophisticated tools developed through years of experience.
Herbert Simon, another decision-making researcher, said expert intuition is "nothing more and nothing less than recognition."
Simply put, you can only connect the dots in new and unexpected ways if you have many dots to connect. This is why broad experience is essential for developing reliable intuition.
Reed Hastings' decision to pivot Netflix into original content production is a great example. Many analysts criticized his decision, saying it was safer to stay focused on licensing existing content. But Hastings' intuition, based on years of experience in entertainment and technology, recognized patterns pointing to a different future. Today, we’re living in that future.
The Competence Connection
The reliability of intuition is intimately linked to your level of competence in a specific domain.
Gary Klein's research on naturalistic decision-making shows how professionals make effective decisions in real-world settings through pattern recognition gained from experience.
At the unconscious competence level, where skills and knowledge are so deeply internalized that they’ve become second nature, intuition is remarkably reliable.
Leaders at this stage often don't need to double-check their gut feelings; their pattern recognition is highly refined and accurate.
However, at the conscious competence stage—where you're skilled but still need to think through decisions deliberately—intuition is less reliable. Here, analytical frameworks and mental models should lead the way. But even at this stage, intuition can be a final litmus test for decisions.
The Litmus Test
Contrary to common wisdom, which suggests using analysis to verify gut feelings, intuition often works better as a final check on analytical decisions.
If you've carefully analyzed a situation but something still feels wrong, that discomfort deserves attention. It might signal that your unconscious mind has recognized a pattern your conscious analysis missed. This is particularly true in uncertain and dynamic situations where, as Gigerenzer points out, logical analysis often falls short.
However—and this is critical—your response to this intuitive discomfort should depend on your competence level in the decision domain.
If you're at unconscious competence, that gut feeling might be worth listening to. If you're at conscious competence, it might simply reflect unfamiliarity with new territory.
The Self-Awareness Imperative
This brings us to perhaps the most critical skill for leveraging intuition effectively: self-awareness. Leaders must accurately assess their competence level in different domains to know how much to trust their intuition versus analysis. This self-knowledge helps calibrate the balance between gut feeling and analytical reasoning.
The Quiet Guide
Ultimately, intuition in leadership is less like a lighthouse showing the way and more like a quiet guide tapping you on the shoulder when something deserves a second look.
It works best when we create space for it to operate naturally, with a clear awareness of when—and how much—to trust its guidance.
The most effective leaders understand this delicate balance. They know when to let their experience-based intuition lead the way, when to rely on careful analysis, and perhaps most importantly, when that quiet tap on the shoulder means it's time to look again.
References
Gigerenzer, G. (2023). The Intelligence of Intuition. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009304887.
Klein, G. (2009). Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.47-6560.
If you're curious about developing your own intuitive leadership abilities, let's explore how your quiet guide can help you in your leadership journey:
